Ces dernières heures, les tensions se sont ravivées entre la Chine et les États-Unis au sujet de Taïwan. Que se passe-t-il vraiment ?
Vers une crise diplomatique majeure entre la Chine et les États-Unis ? Suite à l’arrivée de la présidente de la Chambre des représentants américaine Nancy Pelosi à Taïwan, la Chine a menacé les États-Unis de devoir « payer le prix » de ce déplacement officiel. Une visite qui est en effet source de conflit entre les 3 États, même si « la probabilité d’une guerre ou d’un incident grave est faible », a indiqué Bonnie Glaser, directrice du programme Asie du think tank américain German Marshall Fund.
Les tensions entre Taïwan et la Chine ne datent pas d’hier. Historiquement rattachée à la Chine, l’île située à 180km au large des côtes du sud-est de la Chine était sous pavillon Japonais de 1895 jusqu’à 1945. Suite à la défaite du Japon à l’issue de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, le Japon remet Taïwan à l’ONU qui en confie la stabilisation à la République de Chine.
Un conflit qui dure depuis 1949
Mais en 1949, à l’issue de la guerre civile chinoise qui oppose les nationalistes aux communistes et voit ces derniers l’emporter, les nationalistes fuient la Chine du nouveau président communiste Mao Zedong. Le leader nationaliste Tchang Kaï-chek se replie à Taïwan en décembre 1949, avec près de 2 millions de continentaux sur l’île où il établit un gouvernement qui les coupe de tout lien avec la Chine. La Chine communiste tente de mettre la main sur Taïwan, mais n’y parvient pas face à un Tchang Kaï-chek qui contrôle l’île d’une main de fer et qui continue de revendiquer l’autorité sur tout le territoire chinois. Une alliance se crée très vite, en 1950, entre Taïwan et les États-Unis lors de la guerre de Corée et les tensions entre la Chine et Taïwan se poursuivent au fil des ans.
Si Taïwan n’a jamais déclaré officiellement son indépendance, l’île a tout de même une indépendance administrative, politique, diplomatique et militaire, mais la république populaire de Chine considère Taïwan comme sa 23e province.
« L’ambigüité stratégique » des États-Unis
En 1979, Washington rompt ses relations diplomatiques avec Taïwan pour reconnaître la République populaire de Chine, mais le Congrès américain fournit des armes à Taïwan pour son autodéfense. Depuis, on parle « d’ambiguïté stratégique » des États-Unis envers Taïwan, car personne ne sait s’ils interviendraient ou non pour défendre l’île en cas d’invasion de la Chine, tout en restant son allié le plus puissant et son premier fournisseur d’armes.
À partir de 1995, le dialogue est complètement rompu entre la Chine et Taïwan mais il reprend en 2008, trois ans après la signature d’une loi anti-sécession qui reconnait l’autonomie de Taïwan mais autorise la Chine d’utiliser des « moyens non-pacifiques » si l’île devenait indépendante. En 2010, un accord-cadre de coopération économique est signé entre la Chine et Taïwan, puis en 2015, les présidents chinois et taïwanais se rencontrent à Singapour, une première depuis 1949.
Une « paix » de courte durée puisque depuis 2016 et l’arrivée au pouvoir à Taïwan de Tsai Ing-Wen, une présidente pro-indépendance, les tensions repartent de plus belle avec un Xi Jinping qui compte bien mettre la main sur Taïwan, à l’heure où Tsai Ing-Wen affirme que Taïwan est « un pays en tant que tel ». De leur côté, les Etats-Unis ont toujours annoncé soutenir Taïwan face à la Chine.
Menaçante, la Chine « se prépare à la guerre »
Depuis 2020, la Chine multiplie les violations de l’espace aérien de Taïwan et Xi Jinping demande à son armée de « se préparer à la guerre » en octobre 2020. En octobre 2021 et mai 2022, Joe Biden indique que Washington est prêt à défendre militairement Taïwan, ce qui pousse son homologue chinois à lui dire de pas pas « jouer avec le feu » et menace de « conséquences » en cas de venue de Nancy Pelosi à Taïwan, chose faite à ce jour.
Selon Taipei, il y a eu 969 incursions d’avions de guerre chinois dans sa zone aérienne de défense en 2021 et plus de 470 sur la première partie de l’année 2022.
Si Washington s’abstient de dire si les États-Unis défendraient ou non Taïwan en cas d’invasion, Pékin voit cette visite comme « très dangereuse et très provocatrice » et indique qu’elle « affaiblira également la relation entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis », selon les termes de Zhang Jun, ambassadeur chinois aux Nations unies.
Dès l’annonce de la venue de Nancy Pelosi, des « avions de chasse chinois Su-35 » ont « traversé le détroit de Taïwan », qui sépare la Chine continentale de Taïwan, a indiqué la télévision étatique chinoise CGTN.
Cette visite de Nancy Pelosi à Taïwan menace donc de déclencher une crise diplomatique majeure entre la Chine et les États-Unis, d’autant plus que la Russie semble vouloir s’en mêler. Le Kremlin a déclaré mardi qu’un déplacement de la présidente de la Chambre des représentants américaine sur l’île serait une « pure provocation », sans oublier de rappeler la « solidarité absolue » de la Russie avec la Chine.
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