L’or est considéré par les investisseurs comme un actif refuge pour se prémunir des chocs économiques en période de crise. En 2020 déjà, le prix du métal a dépassé 2 000 $ l’once au plus fort de la pandémie.
Le prix au comptant de l’or a progressé de plus de 3 % ce jeudi 24 février pour atteindre 1 971,54 $ l’once à 10 h 18 GMT, rapporte Reuters. En hausse depuis le début de l’année avec l’intensification des tensions russo-ukrainiennes, le métal jaune a désormais dépassé son prix le plus élevé depuis janvier 2021, lorsqu’il s’était négocié à 1948 $ l’once. L’or atteint ces nouveaux sommets alors que les troupes russes sont entrées en Ukraine à l’aube, faisant craindre une guerre dans toute l’Europe. Alors que les bourses européennes ont ouvert dans le rouge, les investisseurs délaissent donc des actifs plus risqués pour le métal jaune, une valeur refuge en temps de crise.
Pour Jeffrey Halley, analyste principal du marché chez le trader OANDA, la poussée inflationniste de l’or pourrait le porter à 2 000 $ l’once. Le métal jaune retrouverait ainsi un niveau qu’il a atteint en 2020, au plus fort de la pandémie et de la crise économique qui s’en est suivie. La situation avait d’ailleurs permis aux compagnies aurifères d’engranger des profits record. En fonction de l’évolution du conflit en Ukraine, on pourrait donc assister à la même situation en 2022. Cela pose une nouvelle fois la question du bénéfice que tirent les pays producteurs, particulièrement en Afrique où plusieurs pays dépendent de la manne aurifère dans ces hausses importantes du prix du métal jaune. Si l’augmentation du chiffre d’affaires et du bénéfice entraîne logiquement une hausse des revenus liés aux taxes, la question des redevances minières est plus complexe, car certains Etats reçoivent le même pourcentage, que le prix de l’or se négocie à 1 400 $ ou à 2 000 $ l’once.
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