La Russie est le premier producteur mondial de palladium. Si elle conserve sa place de leader, c’est notamment grâce à la compagnie Nornickel. En 2021, le géant a assuré une offre de 2,5 millions d’onces, soit environ 45 % de l’offre mondiale, qui ne suffit toujours pas à satisfaire la demande.
Initialement prévu pour être de 300 000 onces en 2022, le déficit du marché du palladium sera finalement de 100 000 onces selon les estimations du géant russe Nornickel. C’est ce qui ressort de la nouvelle édition de son rapport Quintessentially PGMs publié lundi 23 mai et lu par l’Agence Ecofin. Selon le rapport, la demande mondiale de palladium augmentera de 3 % pour atteindre 10,3 millions d’onces mais l’offre sera aussi en hausse, ce qui rapprocherait le marché de l’équilibre. Ce revirement par rapport aux estimations précédentes publiées en novembre dernier, s’explique principalement par les inquiétudes liées aux récents bouleversements géopolitiques en Europe.
Les analystes évoquent notamment le conflit en Ukraine qui a affecté la demande de l’industrie automobile, la principale consommatrice des métaux du groupe du platine (PGM). A ce facteur s’ajoute la persistance de la pandémie de Covid-19 et des problèmes de logistique. Ces nouvelles prévisions de Nornickel interviennent alors que le marché du palladium est secoué par le conflit russo-ukrainien. Les prix du métal ont grimpé pour se négocier jusqu’à 3 440,76 $, un niveau jamais atteint dans son histoire, sur fond d’inquiétudes quant au risque d’une possible pénurie qui pourrait aggraver les difficultés d’approvisionnement des constructeurs automobiles. Le palladium est utilisé, faut-il le rappeler, dans les convertisseurs catalytiques servant à réduire la pollution des moteurs à combustion interne.
Si les prix se sont quelque peu corrigés depuis, le marché est toujours en état d’alerte concernant l’évolution de la guerre en Ukraine. Selon un rapport de la société Johnson Matthey publié plus tôt ce mois, si le déficit prévu cette année se confirme, la hausse des prix consécutive favoriserait la substitution du métal par le platine dans l’industrie automobile. Pour rappel, l’Afrique du Sud reste le deuxième producteur de palladium au monde, juste derrière la Russie.
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