Dans le monde, le riz est consommé par plus de 3 milliards de personnes. Alors que jusqu’ici la céréale a échappé à l’emballement des prix des denrées de base, de récents développements sur les marchés pourraient changer la donne et affecter la sécurité alimentaire mondiale.
C’est une décision qui pourrait faire date dans l’industrie mondiale du riz. Le lundi 29 août, la Thaïlande et le Vietnam ont annoncé une entente historique afin de renforcer leur poids sur le marché et augmenter les prix de la céréale. Cet accord qui représente l’aboutissement de pourparlers entamés depuis mai dernier vise à permettre aux deux pays respectivement deuxième et troisième plus grands exportateurs de riz au monde, de faire face à la hausse des coûts de production et améliorer les revenus des exploitants. Si aucun détail n’a filtré sur le mécanisme par lequel les deux pays stimuleront les prix du marché ni sur l’échelle de temps, du côté des observateurs on reste déjà sceptique sur les chances de réussite du futur cartel.
L’alliance Thaïlande-Vietnam : un échec annoncé ?
Malgré les déclarations des autorités des deux pays sur le besoin de mieux coordonner leurs exportations et renforcer leur coopération, de nombreuses sources de l’industrie estiment que la viabilité de l’alliance dépendra d’abord de l’Inde. Avec 40 % des exportations mondiales contre 25 % pour le duo Thaïlande-Vietnam, l’Inde est véritablement celui qui possède le pouvoir d’influencer les prix mondiaux du riz d’autant plus qu’il pèse aussi pour le quart de l’offre de riz blanchi alors que les deux autres pays représentent 9 % du stock total.
Par ailleurs, l’Inde vend depuis quelques mois massivement son riz sur le marché à un prix plus compétitif que le Vietnam et la Thaïlande profitant de la faiblesse de la roupie et de ses stocks abondants. Dans un tel contexte, une hausse des prix du riz de ce duo pourrait bénéficier à l’Inde vers lequel les acheteurs pourraient se tourner, ce qui devrait réduire les parts de marché des deux pays à court terme. A ce risque commercial, s’ajoute au fait que le riz ne peut pas être stocké suffisamment longtemps dans l’attente d’une hausse des prix en raison de son caractère périssable.
Plus largement, cette initiative du Vietnam et la Thaïlande intervient en pleine incertitude liée à la hausse des prix des denrées de base comme le blé et les huiles végétales. L’annonce arrive en outre quelques jours après que l’Inde a indiqué le 26 août dernier qu’elle envisageait de restreindre ses ventes de riz brisé à 100 %, ce qui suscite déjà des inquiétudes sur les marchés. Pour rappel, le riz est la céréale la moins commercialisée du trio de tête dans le monde avec seulement 10 % de la production contre près de 15 % pour le maïs et 25 % pour le blé.
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