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La flambée des prix mondiaux des produits alimentaires pourrait s’inscrire dans la durée. C’est ce qu’a confié à la firme d’analyse S&P Global Platts, Monika Tothova, économiste à la FAO. Alors qu’en mars dernier, l’indice de l’organisme onusien qui suit l’évolution des cours de 5 produits de base avait déjà atteint son plus haut niveau depuis sa création en 1990 (159,3 points), la responsable indique que le chemin d’un retour à la normale sera long.
Et pour cause. Dans le sillage de la guerre dans la région de la mer Noire qui a été un choc important sur les marchés des céréales de base et des huiles végétales, la hausse des prix des engrais et d’autres intrants est un élément additionnel qui nourrit l’inflation. « Même si le conflit entre la Russie et l’Ukraine finissait demain, cela prendrait du temps pour que les exportations de produits agricoles retrouvent leur niveau d’avant-guerre. Et même dans ce cas de figure, nous aurions toujours des niveaux élevés pour les intrants. Cela durera encore pendant plusieurs saisons et plus seulement en termes de mois », indique Mme Tothova.
Et d’ajouter : « D’autre part, la hausse des prix des intrants conduit à une progression des prix de plusieurs matières premières utilisées dans l’alimentation animale, ce qui renchérit les tarifs de la viande et du lait. In fine, cela a un impact global sur toute la chaîne alimentaire ». Plus globalement, les perspectives orientées à la hausse pour les prix alimentaires devraient surtout affecter les pays les plus pauvres où les populations dépensent déjà l’essentiel de leur revenu dans l’accès à l’alimentation. Dans ces nations situées notamment en Afrique où le niveau d’utilisation d’intrants est déjà faible comparativement au reste du monde, une hausse durable des prix des engrais menace d’effacer les gains réalisés durant la dernière décennie.
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