La stimulation des exportations des services à forte valeur ajoutée et l’élargissement de l’accès des entreprises privées aux services financiers constituent de puissants leviers capables de briser la dépendance du continent aux matières premières.
Sur les 54 pays du continent africain, 45 restent très dépendants des exportations des matières premières dans les secteurs agricole et extractif, selon une étude rendue publique le jeudi 14 juillet, par la Conférence des Nations unies sur le commerce et le développement (CNUCED).
« En Afrique, 45 pays sont tributaires des produits primaires, et leurs recettes sont très instables en raison de la nature de ce marché caractérisé par des périodes d’envolée et de chute des prix. Si de nombreuses régions d’Afrique ont connu une croissance économique positive ces dernières années, celle-ci était en partie due à un supercycle des matières premières », a souligné l’agence onusienne dans son étude intitulée « Rapport 2022 sur le développement économique en Afrique : Repenser les fondements de la diversification des exportations en Afrique − Le rôle de catalyseur des services financiers et des services aux entreprises ».
La CNUCED considère qu’un pays est dépendant des matières premières lorsque celles-ci représentent plus de 60% du total de ses exportations de marchandises. Au regard de cette définition neuf pays africains seulement ne sont pas dépendants des matières premières : les Comores, Djibouti, l’Egypte, Eswatini, le Lesotho, l’île Maurice, le Maroc, l’Afrique du Sud et la Tunisie.
L’Afrique concentre ainsi 45% des pays dépendants des matières premières à l’échelle mondiale. Cette dépendance est extrêmement forte dans des pays comme la Guinée-Bissau (99,8%), le Soudan du Sud (99%), la Libye (98,7%), le Tchad (98,4%), la Mauritanie (97,3%), le Soudan (97%), l’Angola (96,4%) et le Nigeria (95,7%).
L’étude révèle également que 17 pays africains ont réduit la part des matières premières dans leurs paniers d’exportations au cours de la dernière décennie, à des taux allant de 16% (Sao Tomé-et-Principe) à 1,5 % (Guinée équatoriale, Guinée et Nigeria).
Une source d’instabilité sur le plan macroéconomique
Néanmoins, 32 pays africains exportent davantage de produits primaires aujourd’hui qu’il y a dix ans. Le Cap-Vert, l’Erythrée, le Liberia et Madagascar figurent parmi les pays qui ont le plus augmenté leur dépendance aux matières premières au cours de la dernière décennie. Durant la même période, certains pays sont passés d’une dépendance aux produits agricoles à une dépendance aux produits miniers (Burkina Faso, Burundi, Erythrée, Ghana, Mali, Namibie, Rwanda, Tanzanie et Zimbabwe). D’autres, tels que le Cameroun, le Tchad et le Mozambique, sont passés d’une dépendance à l’égard des produits agricoles à une dépendance à l’égard des hydrocarbures.
L’étude souligne que la dépendance des pays africains aux matières premières représente une source d’instabilité sur le plan macroéconomique, notamment dans des périodes marquées par une grande instabilité des prix des produits de base et par des chocs mondiaux, comme ceux qui font varier l’offre et la demande.
La CNUCED estime cependant que le continent dispose d’un « énorme potentiel pour briser sa dépendance aux matières premières » et assurer une « intégration solide de ses économies dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales haut de gamme ». Elle recommande dans ce cadre aux pays de stimuler leurs exportations des services à forte valeur ajoutée et à forte intensité de connaissances, et d’élargir l’accès des entreprises privées aux services financiers, en exploitant les nouvelles technologies financières.
« Les services à forte intensité de connaissances, tels que les technologies de l’information et de la communication et les services financiers, pourraient changer ainsi la donne en Afrique. En attendant, ils ne représentent que 20% des exportations de services du continent, offrant ainsi une immense marge de progression », indique l’étude, notant que le continent compte 50 millions de PME formelles qui ont besoin de combler un déficit de financement de 416 milliards de dollars chaque année.
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